The Ampel

Where this fits. The execution-layer regime gate inside TradingApp. Every order's effective risk is the trader's tier (from the Risk Ladder) multiplied by the Ampel factor. The Ampel reads QQQ's relationship to its 10- and 21-EMAs and outputs a single multiplier between 0.25 and 1.0.

How it reads

Three conditions, in order:

| Condition | Color | Multiplier | |-----------|-------|------------| | close > EMA10 > EMA21 and trend aligned | 🟢 Green | × 1.0 | | Above both EMAs but EMA10 below EMA21 | 🟡 Yellow | × 0.5 | | close < EMA10 and EMA10 < EMA21 | 🔴 Red | × 0.25 | | Anything else (mixed) | 🟡 Yellow | × 0.5 |

The check runs on the index level — QQQ's daily close against its 10- and 21-period exponential moving averages. The output is a single factor that multiplies the base risk percentage on every order.

The logic favors clarity over precision. There are only three states, the transitions are clean, and the multiplier values are deliberately rounded. The Ampel is not trying to estimate the optimal risk weighting; it's trying to enforce a binary discipline: aggressive in clearly bullish regimes, cautious in mixed regimes, defensive in clearly bearish regimes.

Why three colors

The temptation in regime modeling is to add gradations. Five colors. Continuous scores. Smooth interpolation between states. All of these sound smarter and perform worse — not because they're inaccurate, but because they create decision-making friction at the wrong moments.

A trader looking at a "0.67 risk multiplier" thinks about whether the current setup justifies bending the rule slightly. A trader looking at a yellow Ampel thinks about whether to take the trade at half size or skip it entirely. The discrete output forces a discrete decision. The continuous output invites negotiation.

Three colors is also enough. The QQQ-EMA framework produces clear signals at the major regime shifts, which is when the regime read matters most. The finer gradations within green or red rarely matter for sizing decisions; the trader is either pressing or not.

How it pairs with the deeper regime read

TradingHQ runs a richer regime classification — the CMRF composite that combines breadth, distribution, VIX, momentum, and several other signals. The Ampel is much simpler. They coexist, and they show the trader two related but distinct things:

• CMRF (TradingHQ side): the macro-layer regime read used for setup selection and the pre-market plan. Where are we structurally? What strategies should be live this week?
• Ampel (TradingApp side): the execution-layer regime gate used for sizing every order. Given the current QQQ trend posture, how much size is allowed on the next entry?

In a healthy market both align. In transitional periods they diverge, and the divergence is itself informative. CMRF can still be calling green based on breadth while the Ampel has flipped to yellow because QQQ broke its 10-EMA — that's an early warning that the macro-layer hasn't reflected yet.

The Ampel doesn't override CMRF; it just sizes every order independently. The trader sees both signals and weights them, but the order goes out with the Ampel-derived risk multiplier whether or not the trader agrees with it.

What this rule replaces

A trader without a regime gate sizes every order the same regardless of the broader market. That works in trending regimes and is catastrophic in choppy or hostile regimes — the same setup that returns 4R in a healthy market returns -1R seven times in a row in a deteriorating one.

The Ampel doesn't predict which regime is coming. It just reads the current QQQ trend posture and scales risk accordingly. When the regime flips, the gate flips immediately, and the next order is sized at the new multiplier without the trader having to remember to adjust.

This is the difference between a trader who says "I'll trade smaller in red regimes" and a trader whose order ticket is automatically smaller in red regimes. The first one occasionally forgets. The second one can't.

What it doesn't do

The Ampel doesn't tell the trader whether to take a trade — only how much to risk if they do. The setup decision is still a discretionary call (or comes from the morning report's candidate list). The Ampel only adjusts the risk dial.

It also doesn't enforce stops. Stops come from the strategy type and the structural setup. The Ampel only sits in the dollar-risk-per-share calculation, scaling the position size for a given stop distance.

It's a multiplier, not a rule. It does one thing and does it on every order, automatically, without negotiation.